Gold, OIl, and Semiconductors



Semiconductors appear to be taking a leading role again after consolidating for a few months.  Many of the stronger players have been moving to new highs the last couple of weeks.  A similar pattern of highs in early June followed by a correction and then retest of old highs in late July were followed by a smaller correction in August which is consistent with healthy consolidation.  As an example COHU and UCTT were added back to the portfolio on Sept. 11th and you can see the similarities in the chart patterns below.   


GLD, GDX, and GDXJ were all added to the portfolio between August 18th and 28th, but were removed from the portfolio this week after hitting their trailing stops.  By looking at the charts, it's possible that the downward move was just enough to force money out and could now spend a few weeks consolidating before moving back higher.  The trades amounted to small losses from start to finish, but with other setups appearing there's little reason to sit and wait for a bounce that might now happen. 


Last week, I posted a chart of oil and how the most recent pullback was able to hold the main trend line.  In the previous three attempts, oil failed to hold the main trend line and continued to make lower lows.  XLE also continues to round out the current bottom, and more stocks in the screens are oil and gas related.  Below is the chart from last week and XLE's current chart.  

Position Summary

+1.84% MTD | +20.65% YTD

Open Positions

10 long


30 candidates


For the month of September, the portfolio is up about 1.84% and a little over 20% YTD.  COHU and UCTT have been a big help this month, while GLD, GDX, GDXJ had a negative effect of 1.25% on the total portfolio return.  

Watchlist Summary

As of today, 291 stocks are passing the main screen which is sitting about mid-range for the year. We continue to see a lot of familiar names from last December and the early March time periods.   The key difference is that most are breaking out from much smaller consolidation points.  Below are a few from the list.

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